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SIVASIVA (FCA, Future CA) (4935 Points)

30 August 2010  



Economists give thumbs up to 8.6% GDP growth in Q1

NEW DELHI: The economy may have expanded at close to 9% in the three months to June, its fastest pace in more than two years, driven by high industrial growth and increased private investments. 



An ET poll of six senior economists revealed that the economy may have surpassed the 8.6% growth rate, recorded in the three months to March. The official growth figures for first fiscal quarter ended June will be released on Tuesday. 



“We expect GDP growth to be 8.8% for the first quarter of the fiscal 2010,” said Mridul Saggar, chief economist at Kotak Institutional Securities. “Mining and manufacturing would stand out with growth rates of around 12%. Agriculture will grow at 2.6% and most services will do well with the exception of the social and personal services,” he said. 



The government has already factored in high growth in the first quarter. The chief economic adviser to the finance ministry, Kaushik Basu, had forecast that the economy would grow at close to 9% in the first quarter, although it would ease to 8.4% in the full fiscal year. The government expects the economy to grow by 8.5% in the current fiscal, after growing at 7.4% in 2009-10. 



Other economists surveyed by ET were equally optimistic. “We have a slightly more optimistic view and expect GDP to grow by 8.9% in the first quarter,” said Saugata Bhattacharya, senior vice-president and economist at private sector lender Axis Bank. 



The Reserve Bank of India has pegged the real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2010-11 at 8.7%, up from its earlier forecast of 8.1%. 



The RBI is exiting its loose monetary stance and has pushed up the policy rates by 100 bps this year to rein in inflation. With headline inflation at 9.97% in July, as well as the slowdown in industrial growth in June, the central bank is expected to adopt a wait and watch policy. 



A strong performance by manufacturing will bring first quarter GDP growth close to 9%, according to DK Joshi, chief economist at rating agency Crisil. 



The manufacturing sector has done well in the first fiscal quarter as measured by HSBC’s Purchasing Managers Index for India. 



The PMI for the manufacturing sector had reached a 26-Month high in May coming down slightly in June to 57.3 due to some pricing pressures and running up again to 57.6 in July on account of increase in output. Manufacturing is expected to grow at above 10% levels. 

source: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/Economists-give-thumbs-up-to-86-GDP-growth-in-Q1/articleshow/6458828.cms