I completely disagree with those who plead that it is the victory of Manmohan Singh’s simplicity with good governance or it is the magical effect of Rahul’s campaign.. Had it been so Congress Party could have done well in the state of Jharkhand, Bihar, Gujarat, MP, Chhattishgarh, Karnataka, Assam and Orissa too? Similarly had it been failure of the policies of BJP they could not have done so well in those state where Congress has shown poor results.Mere 3% fall in voteshare f a national party cannot be considered as loss of popularity BJP or a 3% gain in voteshare for Congress Party may be attributed to its overall acceptance at national level. It is a fun that there is slight fall in vote percentage of Nitish’s party JD(U) but the party has gained in seats and on the contrary there is increase in vote percentage of Mayawati’s BSP , but the party has lost in seats. It is undeniable that volatile vote chunk of 3 to 5 % can be due to any local reason. Congress Party which has secured about 27% of votes polled out of 50% of total voters can be at best treated as a figure among cyphers.
As a matter of fact in each constituency voters decides the fate of candidate on his or her performance for that area. If a sitting MP of any area has performed well for that area he or she has been declared winner irrespective of which party he or she belong to. On the contrary where any sitting MP has not performed well, choice of voter comes to select between other available options. Here comes the role of first overall performance of state government and then comes the role of National policies framed in the Parliament by UPA government. This is why magic of Manmohan or Rahul or Sonia did not work in the state where Congress could win negligible seats. After all more than 50% of candidates fielded by Congress Party has been defeated by their rivals under the rule of the same Manmohan led UPA.
As regards media analysis, views of election experts, projection and expectation of veteran journalists and great election analysts, various surveyors, and views of exit poll conductors this election has proved them all wrong. It is worthwhile to mention here that in share market for every fall and rise of prices of shares there is enough reason to quote by so –called share market experts. Similarly after the outcome of result of general election all people belonging to media who used to ridicule Congress party, who used to under estimate Rahul’s charisma and who used to prefer NDA government has started praising Congress Party and the rule of UPA. All of a sudden there has been change in attitude of media people. They all have started playing the flute of Rahul, Sonia and Manmohan Singh. Obviously media has also to take a lot lesson from election results , introspect their role ,assess their pre-poll views, pre-result guessing and mend their ways, discard the policies of wooing ruling party and think for those who really perform without any biasedness for any political party based on false propaganda of secularism or communalism.
Result of General Election has proved to be a disaster for BJP and more particularly for Mr. L K Advani whose aspiration for becoming PM of the country could not be fulfilled. Undoubtedly it is Mr. Advani whose effort took BJP to such a height and it is also a true that due to his effort only Mr. Vajpayee could become PM for three terms. What I have found is that there is not much fall from the past record of BJP. But there is still sharp fall from the projected or expected level of BJP and even its rivals. Expected gain over past results did not come about despite hectic tour made by Narendra Modi and Mr. L K Advani.. BJP lost some seat even in Gujarat, Rajasthan. Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Delhi which is more painful and very much disheartening for BJP. It is also a fact that its grip in many states have gone up. New states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam and Karnataka have now been added to BJP’s stronghold areas. Performance of BJP in UP is also not bad compared to past record. No individual can be blamed for poor performance of BJP when we see the tally of BJP at a glance. However BJP needs to introspect to assess and ascertain where it has committed mistake.
It appears voters have punished those state governments which did not perform well. Left parties lost the ground in West Bengal and Kerala but the same Left front retained its position in Tripura where they performed and satisfied resident of Tripura state. In the same way state of Bihar, Chattishgarh and Delhi, voters have awarded the respective government of JD(U) , BJP and Congress Party. In the state of UP, Mayawati could not keep voters happy after coming to power and this is why it has lost the confidence of voters to a great extent. This is why Congress Party and BJP have gained to some extent whereas SP of Mulayam has also faced erosion in its vote bank due to its caste based attitude, its track record of politics and its baseless friendship developed with Mr. Kalyan Singh.It gives immense pleasure that person like Lalu Yadav, Paswan , Kalyan Singh, Shankar Vaghela has been shown the exit door from politics.
States of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttarakhand are more or less equi-distributed between Congress Party and BJP .As such there appears to be no swing in favour of any party. Depending upon the performance of individuals and work done by their political workers during election the party has won or faced defeat.
UPA has shown performance well above the expected level and this is why there is a sense of great victory in Congress, especially for Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. Even exit poll conducted by Congress party itself did not expect such results. As such there is no doubt that the result has come as a miracle for Congress Party.( I feel astonished that Congress camp started preparation for celebration in just preceding night whereas the same camp was wooing Mayawati , Jayalalitha , TD pans many other smaller parties for formation of coalition government in early day and previous days.
However it gives more pleasure to Congress Party because during last two decades Congress party was almost getting finished in many states. In this general election congress has lost states like Bihar, Jharkhand completely whereas it has gained considerably in the state of West Bengal, Kerala, UP, Tamilnadu and Harayana.Performance of Congress Party has really been praise worthy.
But the party should always keep in mind that still majority of candidates who won the election are against the work of Congress party because it has won at its own only 191 out of 543 seats. If we remove the allies of Congress Party and allow the Congress Party to fight at its own we can say that Congress party has nothing much to celebrate at its own. Only one point of pleasure for Congress Party is that it used to get many crosses in its marks list, this time it has secured pass mark. It is not at all a case of distinction as used to be during Indira and Rajiv’s regime. Anyway the overall result of Congress Party and UPA gives pleasure more than what was in dreams before result.
It is therefore expected that Congress Party will now work well and not confine itself on the mean minded issues pertaining to reservation which gives transitory satisfaction to the people and to the party as well. For all pervasive growth and development of the country, the party has to win the love of general mass who have remained deprived of two decade old policies of economic liberalization, privatization, reformation and globalization.
Prices of all essential commodities rose to such a high extent during UPA regime in last five years that they became almost inaccessible for general mass. Wealth of the country has been confined to a few percentage (almost negligible, as much as 1 or2 % of total population) of population of India whereas majority of India has been passing through critical days. Position of infrastructure needs to be improved. Waiver of farmer’s loan will not serve the purpose of the farmers or poor mass .Agricultural production has to be raised, industries have to be set up and trading activities in retail sector have to be given a boost to create more and more job opportunities and to generate demand in the economy and only then India may remain unaffected by global recession.
Last but not the least, quality education to all and quick justice to all are two keys to make India globally attractive and for its acceptance as strong developed country.
Danendra Jain
17th May 2009
CAclubindia
