The latest letter to shareholder's from Warren Buffet indicates that the recession will last for a long time.
He writes - "We’re certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 – and, for that matter, probably well beyond – but that conclusion does not tell us whether the stock market will rise or fall".
I think we still have lot of excesses in India. The easy money and the money which went to wrong hands and businesses should go away. Recessions are not always bad.
Take for example, the outsourcing/IT industry in India. 90% of the work is donkey work. I stay near one of the IT hubs, where I can see that these so called professionals work hardly for an hour or two and are paid exorbitantly. Half their time goes in forwarding mails which are completely non-sensible. This is easy money.
One of the greatest investors once mentioned, that he can have 50,000 people sit in front of him and make his portrait and give each of them 50,000 dollars annually. However, this will drive away the useful resources of the economy, which would otherwise do some better work for the nation. This portrait is of no use to the economy. Further, these 50,000 ppl would get easy money which will most probably used in splurging. This is how a scenario is created where you will find a lot of crowd paying 100 rs for a coffee, 200 rs for a pastry and so on. This easy money in the opinion of that Investor would last for say 20 years. And, in the 21st year when it will disappear, it would lead to a disaster. The easy money for these portrait makers is gone which would also lead to extinction of all those people and places for whom and where it was spent.
Indian IT & Outsourcing relates well to above in my opinion.
Some of the leading Industrialists of this country have rightly pointed out the above.
If agriculture could have been given the necessary infrastructure, and a good supply chain network would have been there, I think we would have been far better today. Mukesh Ambani rightly said - The arbitrage in agriculture is bigger than that of IT. In the gulf, they have not made SEZs/malls on oil fields and today they are better off. Our agricultural fields are as valuable as the oil fields of gulf. We have the most fertile land in the world. This is our biggest advantage. And its unfortunate to see it getting destroyed. We have been criticising agriculture and we have talked of industiralisation, forgetting that 60-65% masses is involved in agriculture. For the retail/real estate/telecom/autos and all other sectors to grow and survive, these 60-65% people have to get rich.
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