Why UPA will lose this election?
Major political parties like RJD, LJP , SP and left parties who were instrumental in formation and survival of government in the year 2004 and 2008 have not only left Congress Party but also engaged in condemnable mud slinging process against Congress party and vice versa. Obviously there will be large scale split of UPA votes.
Moreover Congress party has lost its image in the case of nuclear deal, Quottrachi release, and Mumbai blast and also due to economic slowdown causing loss of employment. Congress Party has failed to please villagers through NREGA .Farmers whose loans were waived can easily forget the relief they got under Agricultural Debt Relief scheme of Rupees 75000/crores but those farmers who were deprieved of the relief only because they paid their loan timely cannot forgive Congress Party for the injustice meted out to them.
Party spent most of their time in nuclear deal debates but general mass could not understand the benefits accruing to them. To add fuel to fire prices of essential commodities rose to peak and have gone beyond the control of common man. Stock market fell down sharply which caused huge loss to retail investors.
UPA has less positive work record to attract voters significantly and hence it concentrated mainly on the faults of preceding ruling party NDA. Congress continues to blame BJP for damage of Babri structure or Gujrat Riot but forgets Bhagalpur communal riot, Sikh riot of 1984 and historic Godhra incident when a bogey of train full of Hindu passengers was burnt alive by Muslim fundamentalists. . Congress blames BJP for Kandhar but failed miserably to stop recurrence of terror attack and punish terrorists behind the same as also failed to teach Pakistan a lesson who caused Mumbai blast.
Beside UPA cannot associate with left parties as long as Trinamul Congress is in the camp of UPA. Samajwadi party of Mulayam cannot join UPA camp if BSP is tried for joining the government. AIADMK cannot go long with Congress party as long as DMK is attached with UPA. JD(U) cannot be expected to join UPA as long as there is Lalu in the camp of UPA. Moreover Jayalalitha, Mamta and Mayawati are three such lady leaders who cannot be trusted for stable government. Even Sharad Pawar cannot be trusted for long. Shibu Soren of Jharkhand is already a dead force. Who is then left with Congress Party in UPA.
Under such circumstances there is all possibility of BJP led NDA forming the ext government provided BJP is ready to compromise and accept the blackmail politics of above named three unpredictable lady leaders. It is believed that Mr. Advani with his vast experience, wisdom and knowledge will be able to include the said three lady dominated political parties and provide stable government to our country.
No doubt defeated groups of third front and fourth front will leave no stone unturned to stop BJP from coming to power. But lady trio will soon realize that UPA dominated by Lalu or Paswan or Mulayam or Prakash Karat cannot be comfortable for them. However Mr. L K. Advani , PM-in-waiting cannot expected to win the political game after the result without making concerted effort to convince the lady trio. He has to make effort even to retain Nitish of JD(U) and rejoining of TDP and BJD in NDA camp.
Danendra Jain
Agartala
2nd May 2009
CAclubindia
