Q1 Exports: RBI Data Exceeds Commerce Ministry Figures by $7.2 billion
The recent downward revision of the country's export figures has created a $7.2-billion difference between the shipment data collected by the commerce department and the export income inflows compiled by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) during the same period, posing another uncomfortable riddle for the government and raising the possibility of a second round of data revision.
Last week, the government lowered the April-October export numbers by $8.8 billion to $171 billion from $179.8 billion, citing human and computer errors for the original overstatement.
This revision, which largely pertained to the April-June quarter, had come after doubts were raised about excessively rosy export data in the backdrop of a global economy that was slowing down rapidly. But the discrepancy that has now arisen between the commerce department and Reserve Bank data could cause further embarrassment to the government.
The central bank's data is considered to be more reliable as it is based on actual payment basis. The government may, therefore, have to restate the revised figures again or find a plausible explanation to rule out the possibility of exports mispricing to bring back black money.
"The concerned officials are looking at the exports numbers again," said a government official, adding that another revision was possible. Unlike the first round, this time the revision will have to be in the upward direction if the export data has to be reconciled with the RBI figures.
A senior commerce department official said he would not read too much in the variance in data. "There is always a time lag between physical exports and payments. The money that is getting remitted this month could account for exports that happened last month or five months back.
There is no study available that would link remittances to exports that take place," Director General of Foreign Trade Anup Pujari told ET.
But the $7.2-billion difference is starkly out of sync with earlier trends. In the last couple of years, the difference in the exports numbers compiled by the RBI and the commerce department has been less than $1 billion in the first quarter. "Variation in the data is very wide... there seems to be some indication of overinvoicing," said Abheek Barua, chief economist, HDFC Bank.
Source : economictimes.indiatimes.com
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