This is the Story of a Clever Student:
A CA Student far away from his preparation upto the last minute of his exams, has got a thought of passing the exam using the "THEORY OF PROBABILITY".
His assumptions were as follows:
(1) The Question paper will be asked for 100 marks divided into 20Questions (Including Subquestions).
(2) He has on an average 20 Chapters to prepare in a week time.
(3) There will be "PROBABILITY" of changing in previous "PROBABILITY(ies)".
Basing on the above assumptions, he started the last week of preparation as follows.
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Particulars Probability of getting a Question Probability of not getting a Question form this Chapter form this Chapter
_____________________________________________________________________________________
CHAPTER - 1
(One Question out of 20 Questions) = 1/20 = 0.05 1-0.05 = 0.95
Being the probability of NOT GETTING THE QUESTION FROM THAT CHAPTER IS HIGH he safely left that Chapter.
Next.............
CHAPTER - 2 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 3 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 4 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 5 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 6 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 7 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 8 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 9 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 10 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 11 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 12 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 13 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 14 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 15 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 16 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 17 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 18 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 19 0.05 0.95
CHAPTER - 20 0.05 0.95
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Average = (0.05X20)/20 = 0.05 = (0.95X20)/20 = 0.95
_______________________________________________________________________________________
He finally concluded that the PROBABILITY OF GETTING A QUESTION FROM THE ENTIRE SYLLABUS IS LESS THAN THE PROBABILITY OF NOT GETTING A QUESTION FROM THE ENTIRE SYLLABUS.
Then he left the Preparation for ever............................
He started again his "THEORY OF PROBABILITY" for his results as under................
For PAPER - I
PROBABILITY of Getting "40" out of "100 Marks" = 40 Marks out of 100 Marks = 40/100 = 0.40
HENCE,
PROBABILITY of Not Getting "40" out of "100 Marks" = 60 Marks out of 100 Marks = 60/100 = 0.60
Like wise he computed for all his Eight Papers and Finally Concluded that......
Average "PROBABILITY" of Not Getting 40 Marks out of 100 Marks = (0.6 X 8 Papers) / 8 = 0.60 or 60%
HENCE HE WILL SURELY PASS THE EXAM WITHOUT PREPARATION....................
The ICAI declared the Result on a Fine Day and his result was Displayed as under........................
 |
The Institute of Chartered Accountants of India |
ROLL Number |
99999 *Check Merit |
Name |
ASHA JEEWAN |
| Group I | |
Financial Reporting |
Giving a Pass mark to you is a Chane out of 50000 Students appeared = 1/50000 = 0.00002 Fail Probability = 0.99998 As We prefer the Higher, YOU WAS "FAIL" |
Strategic Financial Management |
Same As Above |
Advanced Auditing and Professional Ethics |
Same As Above |
Corporate and Allied Laws |
Same as Above |
Total |
Four FAILS |
Result |
("FAIL X 4") / 4 = FAIL |
| Group II | |
Advanced Management Accounting |
Same As Above |
Information Systems Control and Audit |
Same As Above |
Direct Tax Laws |
Same As Above |
Indirect Tax Laws |
Same As Above |
Total |
Four FAILS |
Result |
("FAIL X 4") / 4 = FAIL |
Grand Total |
EIGHT FAILS |
|
IMPORTANT NOTE BY ICAI The result declared by ICAI is true for ever. You are requested to not check your result once again. |
MORAL OF THE STORY:
Our Hero ASHA JEEWAN learn a moral from his story as " The PROBABILITY OF MY THINKING BECOMES TRUE = 1/2 = 0.5, and The PROBABILITY OF OTHERS THINKING ALSO BECOME TRUE = 1/2 = 0.5.
......
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