Hard truth about software workers

Take the global financial crisis. Add a dash of the curious case of Satyam. Sprinkle the World Bank's 'deferred' revelations of past bans imposed on, Wipro, etcetera. Dab some of the populist comments from the United States' 44th President about cutting down outsourcing and protecting American jobs.

The mix would be enough to induce a nasty headache in an Indian software professional. Now add to it, comments from a US Senator who belongs to the opposition Republican party, Iowa's Charles E Grassley. Last week, when Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer announced his company's plan to shrink its workforce by 5,000 over the next 18 months, Grassley promptly wrote to Ballmer to ensure that American workers are given priority in 'job retention'. That developed countries are expected to turn 'protectionist' in the face of the unprecedented economic recession faced by them after many generations, is obvious. That their politicians may turn against foreign workers in a bid to protect locals' jobs (and their votes) is evident from Grassley's reflex reaction.

But those worrying about the Indian IT story's medium-term future shouldn't bother about the political hyperbole and needn't even look for answers in how well the government manages to control the image damage from Satyam. It's not about whether Americans can get the jobs. It's really about whether there are enough qualified Americans to do the jobs.

The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, an international test of fourth and eighth grade students, finds that only 10% of eighth graders in the US performed at the highest level in science. The National Science Foundation found that only 17% of US graduates earned a degree in science, technology, engineering, or mathematics (and this would include many Indian students!) This is not just below the global average of 26%, but also below China (52%), Japan (64%), Russia (33%), Mexico (25%) and India (24%).

So, the recession may lead to shrinkages in jobs and IT projects may also go slow. But the US needs migrant skilled workers, whether from India or the Middle East. It's elementary.