"Understanding Technical Analysis "


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Understanding Technical Analysis
 
Stock market analysis has been classified into two major categories - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. (There may be others, but those aren’t followed much.)  
 
A person following fundamental analysis, studies P&L accounts, balance sheets, sales data, production data, market conditions, macro economic factors and so on.
From different types of data that he collects, he tries to forecast the earnings of the company and thus tries to give a valuation to a particular share.  
On the other hand, Technical analysis (TA) is the study of the market and not of the goods traded in the market. A PURE technical analyst is least bothered about the business a company is in.  
 
The price of a stock is result of how strong the demand and supply is for a stock. If demand is greater than supply the price goes up and vice versa.  
TA believes that the best judge of Demand and Supply is the price of stock itself. Thus TA tries to analyse Demand and Supply from the price action and extrapolate it into the future.  
TA is the study of recording market behaviour (Price, Volume etc) in the form of charts and trying to forecast the future based on past actions.
 
 
DOW THEORY - The Foundation of TA:  
 
Charles Dow made brilliant observations about market behaviour, which were later reorganised into the DOW THEORY by W.P. Hamilton.  
Before the Dow theory, it is essential to understand the importance of averages (Indices as we call them in India ).  
 
Why do we need an Index?  
 
Everyone of you must have understood from market experience, that in Bull markets most stocks move up and in bear market most stocks move down. Indices are nothing but the Basic indicators that give us an idea about the general markets or a group of stocks.  
Originally Dow theory was related to Market averages (indices) but it is also found to work well with Individual Stocks.  
 
DOW THEORY:
 
Charles Dow wrote a series of articles in The Wall Street Journal, which later formed, what we call the “Dow Theory”.  
 
 IN 1897 Dow separated the railroads and industrials into two different indices – 12 stock industrial average and 20 stock rail index. The industrial average is used even today by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and is known as DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average). DJIA has comprised of 30 stocks since 1928 and is world’s best known Index today.  
Dow theory comprises of some basic tenets: